CNBC Closing Bell
2026-06-25 · Hosted by Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee, Michael Santoli · CNBC
Executive Summary
Micron blew past expectations after the bell — EPS of $25.11 vs. $20.78 expected, revenue of $41.46 billion, non-GAAP gross margins of nearly 85%, and Q4 guidance of ~$31/share on $50 billion revenue — sending the stock up ~5% and adding ~$130 billion in market cap, validated by 16 strategic customer agreements (14 worth ~$100 billion-plus over their terms). All 32 banks passed the Fed stress test, prompting dividend hikes and buybacks from JPMorgan ($50B buyback), Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BNY. Housing stocks surged (XHB +5%, KB Home +17%) on falling yields and strong earnings, while gold broke below $4,000 and Bitcoin fell under $60,000. Alphabet ended lower amid AI talent defections to Anthropic and OpenAI, and Wendy’s spiked ~42% as a new meme-stock target.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Micron’s Blowout Earnings
EPS $25.11 adjusted vs. $20.78 street consensus; beat even buy-side numbers
Revenue $41.46 billion for Q3; non-GAAP gross margin ~84.9% (“incredible to see a chip company at 85%”)
Q4 guidance: ~$31/share on ~$50 billion revenue, near the high end of street estimates
16 strategic customer agreements signed (4 very large, 3 medium customers); 14 of 16 worth ~$100 billion-plus over remaining terms (3–5 years)
DRAM 2026 growth guided low-to-mid 20s%; CapEx ~$7.1B in Q3 (slightly light vs. $7.3B est.), ~$10B projected Q4, >$40 billion for 2027
Stock added ~$130 billion in market cap after hours; one of the last “bastions” of AI infrastructure excitement
2. Fed Stress Tests & Bank Capital Returns
All 32 banks remained above minimum requirements; firms absorbed >$708 billion in hypothetical loan losses; capital declined only ~1.6 ppts in aggregate
Results won’t impact required capital this year (Fed maintaining current rules until 2027)
JPM: JPMorgan — +0.6% — Dividend to $1.65 (+10%); new $50B buyback
GS: Goldman Sachs — +0.3% — Dividend to $5.00 (+11%)
MS: Morgan Stanley — +0.4% — Dividend +15% to $1.15; $20B buyback reauth
WFC: Wells Fargo — — — Dividend +11% to $0.50
BK: BNY — flat — Dividend +19% to $0.63 (biggest hike)
3. Housing Stocks Surge
XHB homebuilder ETF +5%; KB Home +17% on strong earnings; Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams led the Dow
Driven by falling long-term yields, strong KB Home results, and a housing bill in Congress (Trump threatened not to sign until the Save Act passes)
New home sales data weak (580K) but viewed as backward-looking; UBS calls builders “spring-loaded” at 11x earnings
4. Gold & Crypto Collapse
Gold fell below $4,000 for first time since November; silver down 20% in a week; copper, platinum, palladium “all collapsing”
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for first time since October 2024; Strategy down 40% in June
Drivers: rampaging dollar, hawkish “Kevin Warsh Fed” establishing inflation credibility, rotation into AI trade
5. Alphabet AI Brain Drain
Alphabet fell for a third straight day (−6% on the week) on AI talent defections; at least five departures from Google’s core AI team in seven days
Noam Shazeer (Gemini co-lead, transformer paper author) left for OpenAI; John Jumper (Nobel laureate) and two more DeepMind researchers headed to Anthropic
Gemini 3.5 Pro reportedly pushed to July; Anthropic and OpenAI have confidentially filed S-1s
6. Anthropic vs. Alibaba & Qualcomm
Anthropic sent a confidential letter to Senate Banking accusing Alibaba of using ~25,000 fake accounts to extract Claude’s workings; framed as national security threat
Qualcomm investor day: 2029 non-handset revenue target ~$40 billion (nearly double 2024 projection); new $15 billion data center AI revenue target by fiscal 2029; +10% after hours
Wendy’s surged ~42% as a meme stock (29% short interest, new CEO Bob Wright)
Trends Identified
1. Recipients of CapEx Over the Spenders
Investors increasingly want exposure to the beneficiaries of AI CapEx — Micron, memory and hardware names — rather than the hyperscalers footing the bill, whose ROI confidence is questioned. The Mag 7 has lagged while memory stocks show actual earnings power, which Evercore’s Julian Emanuel argued “argues for the durability of the rally.”
2. Structural Shift in Memory Economics
Micron’s 16 long-term strategic agreements aim to break the historical “boom and bust” memory cycle by providing multi-year revenue visibility. With capital intensity declining as a share of revenue (Micron generated ~$16B free cash flow on $7B CapEx), analysts argue this cycle is genuinely different — though China memory (YMTC, CXMT) and a 2028 training-to-inference transition remain risks.
3. The Great Rotation: Macro Cooperation Fuels Broadening
With oil back near $70, yields following crude lower, and the economy holding up, money is rotating into housing, financials, healthcare, and small caps. Negative-beta stocks (80+ that move inversely to the S&P) have emerged as a unique hedge for AI-tilted portfolios.
4. Human Intelligence Is the Scarce AI Input
The Alphabet brain drain underscores that elite AI researchers — drawn to frontier labs with competitive coding products and pre-IPO equity upside — are themselves the critical bottleneck for AI model development, an irony Santoli highlighted. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish
The dominant mood is constructive on AI/memory durability and a broadening rally supported by cooperative macro, tempered by valuation concerns on parabolic semis and weakness in gold/crypto.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Memory cyclicality reversal: An 85% gross margin “is as good as it gets”; eventual normalization could turn the trade sharply.
China memory supply: YMTC/CXMT IPOs and any easing of export restrictions could pressure pricing.
2028 training-to-inference transition: Could challenge memory demand durability.
Parabolic semi valuations: Micron is a 3-beta stock at >$1.1 trillion market cap — extreme volatility.
Gold/crypto deleveraging: Strong dollar and hawkish Fed pressuring safe havens and treasury strategies.
Alphabet talent exodus: AI brain drain plus product delays threaten Google’s competitive position.
Housing data weakness: New home sales missed; affordability and rates remain headwinds.
Hawkish Fed/rate uncertainty: Warsh-led Fed and volatile yields create market jitters.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-06-25, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.