CNBC Closing Bell
2026-09-25 · Hosted by Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee, Michael Santoli · CNBC
Executive Summary
Stocks closed roughly flat, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq near the flat line and the Dow down about 150 points, as a historic bond rout continued. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2004, and the 10-year approached 5.2% intraday before settling near that level — a move HSBC's Alistair Pinder said was notable more for its speed than its absolute level, distinguishing today's earnings-driven rally from the 2022 rate shock.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Historic Bond Rout Continues
The 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2004; the 10-year approached 5.2%, its highest since 2007
Nearly 900 stocks hit new 52-week lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq combined — more than 10-15% of all listings
HSBC's Alistair Pinder said what "breaks" equities is the speed of yield moves, not the absolute level, and that strong earnings growth (25-30% year-over-year) is offsetting valuation compression, unlike 2022
95% of US mortgages are fixed and the average mortgage rate (~4.3%) is below what the government pays on its own debt, muting the Fed's transmission to consumers directly
2. Meta's Historic September Rally Continues
Meta shares rose another 4%, bringing the September gain to 35% — the stock's second-best month on record
Gene Munster (Wedbush) compared the moment to Google's April 2025 re-rating around Gemini, saying Muse becoming the "centerpiece" of the company is a turning point
Estimated operating income upside from Muse over five years: 8% to 80%, a wide range reflecting uncertainty
Wedbush flagged risk: Amazon has already blocked Muse from certain retail integrations, raising questions about how many third parties will participate
3. Oracle's New Mexico Force Majeure Fallout
Shares fell again; stock has now lost half its value over the past year
RBC's Rishi Jalaria said the 2.4-gigawatt site underpins part of Oracle's $664 billion backlog
CNBC's Seema Modi noted force majeure is typically reserved for earthquakes, war, or terrorism — using it for political/regulatory opposition is a first-of-its-kind case
Key sticking point: a natural gas pipeline needed for Blue Owl's energy supply, tied to New Mexico environmental permitting
4. Akamai-Anthropic Deal
Akamai signed an $11.6 billion, seven-year cloud-computing capacity deal with Anthropic
Shares jumped more than 15-16% in after-hours trading
Deal reflects Anthropic's "almost endless" compute needs ahead of its IPO and Akamai's push to diversify beyond content delivery and cybersecurity into compute
META: Meta Platforms — +4% (day), +35% (month) — Muse hardware launch drives best month since 2013
ORCL: Oracle — Down, -50% over past year — Force majeure notice on New Mexico data center raises payment-delay questions
AKAM: Akamai — +15-16% (after-hours) — $11.6B, 7-year Anthropic compute deal
BB: BlackBerry — +130% (2026 YTD) — Raised revenue forecast on QNX automotive software strength
MGM: MGM Resorts — -11% — Barry Diller's People Inc. walked away from take-private bid
PVH/EVERSPIN: eVerpure (formerly Pure Storage) — Top S&P performer — Preliminary FY28 forecast above consensus on hyperscaler AI demand
5. MGM / People Inc. Deal Collapses
Barry Diller's People Inc. walked away from its bid to take MGM private
People Inc. retains a roughly 27% stake in MGM and says it remains open to other deals
MGM shares fell 11% on the news, with the company saying it will move forward as a standalone company
6. BlackBerry Pivots to Physical AI
BlackBerry raised its annual revenue forecast on strength in its automotive QNX software business
Shares up 130% in 2026; CEO John Chen (referred to as "John GM Mateo" in transcript) said QNX holds about 90% market share in centralized-compute vehicle architectures, a third of the ~90 million cars made annually
Company sees growth extending into robotics, medical instrumentation, and industrial automation ("physical AI"), citing wins with Uber and industrial automation firms
7. Restaurant Sector Weakness
Darden missed earnings estimates on an Olive Garden same-store-sales slowdown and a cyclospora outbreak concern
Starbucks will close 250 underperforming cafes in North America (~1% of total stores), its second closure round under CEO Brian Niccol
Other casual dining names (Brinker, Cheesecake Factory, BJ's) have fared better, puzzling hosts about where consumer value perception now sits
Trends Identified
1. Bond Market Volatility Outpacing Equity Reaction
Despite historic speed in the bond selloff — the 30-year at a 22-year high and the 10-year near 5.2% — equities have shown surprising resilience, which strategists attribute to strong earnings growth outrunning valuation compression (a phenomenon distinct from 2022's earnings decline).
2. AI Monetization Narrative Shifting From CapEx to Revenue
Meta's re-rating shows the market rewarding demonstrated AI monetization (agentic consumer products, or capital spending on AI (building AI without immediate profit) finally converting to product) over pure infrastructure spend, a shift that could pressure other mega-caps still unable to show comparable returns.
3. Data Center Buildout Facing Real-World Friction
Oracle's unprecedented use of force majeure for political/regulatory reasons signals that permitting, water/environmental constraints, and local opposition are becoming material risks to the AI infrastructure buildout timeline, not just financing costs.
4. Dividend Sectors Repricing as Bond Yields Rise
Utilities and real estate — sectors that had re-rated on AI power-demand hopes — are now underperforming as rising yields make their dividend yields look comparatively less attractive, a reversal of the "AI power play" narrative from earlier in the year. ---
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Resiliently Cautious
Markets shrugged off historic bond volatility with a mostly flat close, but hosts and guests flagged growing structural concerns beneath the surface, from mortgage rates to data center financing.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Speed of bond yield moves: A 10-basis-point move in six hours and approach toward 5.3% on the 10-year could trigger further equity repricing if sustained.
Mortgage rate pressure: 30-year mortgage rates near 22-year highs threaten housing-linked sectors and consumer spending capacity.
Data center financing/permitting risk: Oracle's force majeure notice highlights water, energy, and regulatory bottlenecks that could delay AI infrastructure nationwide.
Hyperscaler CapEx and debt issuance: Rising yields could pressure the cost of debt-financed AI buildouts, though not yet seen as a severe headwind.
Meta hardware execution risk: Third-party retailer participation (e.g., Amazon blocking Muse) could limit the addressable value of agentic commerce.
Restaurant sector demand softness: Olive Garden's same-store sales slowdown and broader fast-food weakness signal uneven consumer spending.
Utilities/real estate sector stress: Continued yield increases could further pressure rate-sensitive dividend sectors.
Narrow market breadth: New 52-week lows outpacing new highs by a wide margin signals underlying market fragility despite flat index-level moves.
This episode was covered in today's [The Market Signal — 2026-09-25](https://marketsignal.beehiiv.com/p/the-market-signal-2026-09-25), a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.