CNBC The Exchange
2026-07-01 · Hosted by Kelly Evans · CNBC
Executive Summary
Closing out the best first half in years — best for the Dow in five years, best for small caps in more than three decades — Piper Sandler’s Michael Cantrowitz argued the S&P is on track to hit 8,000 by year end, with CPI possibly ending in the low-2% range and the Fed likely to hold or push out rate hikes as inflation cools. Bernstein raised its SanDisk target to $3,000 (from $1,700), citing faster memory pricing and new long-term price agreements, with the stock up 828% YTD. Nike was previewed near a 12-year low ahead of a weak-expected print; Latinburg Thalman’s Phil Blancato argued a recovering M&A wave — not AI or lower rates — will fuel the next leg of the bull market. Segments also covered luxury real estate as young millionaires’ top alt, and Uber ending its Waymo Phoenix partnership.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Bullish Macro Call — S&P to 8,000, Inflation Cooling
Piper Sandler’s Michael Cantrowitz: S&P on track to “easily hit 8,000 by year end”; the market has gotten cheaper this year as earnings estimates rose ~20% vs a ~15% start-of-year forecast
75% of S&P 500 stocks have seen earnings-estimate increases — highest in five years, signaling a broadening economy
Firm sees CPI possibly in the low-2% range by year end; falling oil, gasoline (~$3.80) and rents as disinflationary
Believes the market misreads new Fed Chair Warsh as too hawkish (market pricing ~100% odds of an October hike); expects an incrementally less hawkish tone
2. SanDisk — Bernstein Raises Target to $3,000
SanDisk the best S&P stock of the quarter, up 828% YTD (~$2,200); Bernstein’s Mark Newman raised target to $3,000 (from $1,700), shares +7.5%
Drivers: memory pricing rising faster than expected, plus new long-term price agreements that lock in price ranges (not just supply) — improving earnings sustainability
Memory PEs still in single digits; DRAM prices up ~500%, NAND ~400%, while hard-drive prices only up ~7% (started rising in March) — seen as more upside to come
3. Nike Preview — Near 12-Year Low
Nike -21% for the quarter (worst in four years), near its lowest since 2014, shares down ~50% since the CEO took over 20 months ago
Options: put buyers dominant, 39-strike puts (expiring Thursday) most popular; implied move just above 8%
Investors want stabilization in North America, a slowdown in China “bloodshed,” product-innovation traction and turnaround-signaling guidance
4. M&A Wave as the Next Bull-Market Leg
Phil Blancato (Latinburg Thalman): recovering deal activity — not AI or lower rates — will fuel the next leg; near-doubling of US deal value this year, 44% increase in software M&A March–May
Cited Fox/Roku, Rocket/Iridium, Devon/Coterra, most biotech deals since 2019; sees Salesforce and software “winners” acquiring smaller players as AI reengineers business
Argues AI has yet to deliver measurable productivity/ROI; recommends cutting Mag 7 exposure in half and adding small caps
5. Luxury Real Estate — Young Millionaires’ Top Alt
88% of Gen Z/millennial millionaire investors plan to increase alternatives allocation; real estate their favorite (half already own it as an investment)
Real estate is the top alt for the ultra-wealthy (25M+), ranked first at 38%, ahead of private equity and stocks
Broker Peter Zeitzeff: strongest luxury market ($4M+) he’s seen, ~30 units/week transacting in NYC; warns of near-zero inventory by 2027; buyers include SpaceX, Anthropic, Google and Jane Street wealth
6. Uber Ends Waymo Phoenix Partnership
Uber and Waymo wound down their nearly three-year Robotaxi pilot in Phoenix; Waymo leaning into direct-to-consumer (first national ad campaign during World Cup)
Uber shifting to first-party fleet ownership: 35,000 Lucid and up to 50,000 Rivian vehicles committed — an expensive departure from its asset-light model; Uber -22% over the past year
Trends Identified
1. A “Goldilocks” Disinflation Setup
Cantrowitz’s thesis rests on cooling inflation (commodities, gasoline, rent) allowing the Fed to hold or delay hikes, lifting the market multiple on top of already-strong, broadening earnings. Kelly Evans noted the irony that “Goldilocks” talk is often a reverse indicator — but the guest sees the July 14 CPI report as a potential trend-breaker.
2. Memory’s Structural Re-Rating
Bernstein’s SanDisk call reframes memory as a durable earnings story rather than a cyclical trade, thanks to long-term price agreements that lock in ranges. With DRAM/NAND already up hundreds of percent and hard drives barely moved, the analyst sees the pricing cycle spreading further across storage.
3. Deals as a Post-Bubble Signal
Blancato likened today to the years after the dot-com bubble, when M&A exploded to separate winners from losers. A recovering deal wave — especially in software and power — is presented as evidence AI adoption is maturing toward productivity and ROI, and as a macro tell for broadening market leadership.
4. Alternatives and Real Estate as Wealth Hedges
Younger and ultra-wealthy investors are tilting toward alternatives, with real estate favored as an inflation hedge and usable, passable asset — even as private equity and private credit returns disappoint. Tech wealth (SpaceX, Anthropic, Jane Street) is a growing source of luxury-property demand. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Bullish
The dominant mood is optimistic — a cheaper-getting market, cooling inflation, structural memory strength and a reviving deal cycle — with Nike the notable weak spot.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Inflation upside surprise: If Cantrowitz is wrong and one or two hikes materialize, multiples compress and the index struggles.
Hawkish Fed / Warsh: Market pricing ~100% October-hike odds; a hawkish tone is the key macro risk.
Memory pricing collapse: Stocks price in an imminent pricing downturn; long-term agreements reduce but don’t eliminate downside.
Nike turnaround: Near 12-year low with China deterioration and no expected near-term relief.
AI ROI shortfall: Blancato stresses the trillion-dollar spend has not yet produced measurable productivity.
Mag 7 concentration: Free-cash-flow-yield declines and CapEx concerns leave the group in the red YTD.
NYC housing inventory crunch: Near-zero luxury inventory by 2027 could distort the market.
Uber’s strategic shift: First-party fleet ownership is capital-intensive and a departure from its model.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-07-01, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.