CNBC Closing Bell
2026-08-13 · Hosted by Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee, Michael Santoli · CNBC
Executive Summary
Wall Street closed mixed but resilient, with the S&P 500 up about 0.2% and the Nasdaq up roughly 0.5%, posting their first positive session in three days as July's inflation print landed in line with expectations. The real story was a sharp rotation back into momentum and AI infrastructure names — Super Micro, Nebius (up 34% over two days), CoreWeave, and even Bloom Energy and SpaceX — while mega-cap winners like Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple each fell about 3% on the week amid profit-taking.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Momentum Trade Roars Back on AI Infrastructure Earnings
S&P 500 up ~0.2%, Nasdaq up ~0.5%, both posting first positive session in three days
CoreWeave, Super Micro, Nebius (+34% two-day), and Bloom Energy all rallied sharply on AI infrastructure demand signals
SpaceX up roughly 13% on the day despite no fresh company-specific news, described by strategists as an "AI infrastructure play" and a short squeeze
Contrast: Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple each down about 3% this week even as the index held near highs — Alphabet and Meta struggling near their 50-day moving averages
Memory names (Samsung, SK Hynix) and the DRAM ETF (+7%) also rallied on reports Singapore's Temasek wants to buy in directly
Software lagged; Workday, Adobe, and AppLovin were among the Nasdaq 100's biggest laggards
2. Cisco Beats But Margin Guide Disappoints
EPS $1.22 vs. estimates, revenue $17.25 billion; networking revenue strong at $9.79 billion
Raised fiscal 2027 AI revenue target to $7.5 billion from $6 billion
Full-year EPS guide $5.05-$5.11 vs. $4.80 estimate; full-year revenue guide $72.2-$73.4 billion, above estimates
Gross margin guided at 65-66%, short of the 66.1% Street wanted; shares initially rose then reversed to close down roughly 1% intraday before further weakness after hours
CEO Chuck Robbins told CNBC operating margin hit a record 35.9% — an all-time high — arguing scale more than offsets lower gross margin
Robbins said product orders were up 35% even excluding hyperscalers (+25%); called telco "incredibly strong"
Security segment grew 14%, but Robbins attributed much of that to a one-time Splunk mix shift; underlying growth was high single digits, expected to normalize in fiscal 2027
3. Cerebras and Nebius Earnings Disappoint Despite Headline Beats
Cerebras core revenue $210 million, more than double a year ago; adjusted EBITDA loss of $53 million, smaller than the $79 million loss expected; raised full-year revenue guide slightly (roughly $868-$880 million)
Shares fell as much as 12-15% after hours; hardware sales guide seen as disappointing relative to a $72 billion market cap
CEO Andrew Feldman said the company is "hustling," renting back capacity from customer G42 on short-term deals while signing long-term contracts; margins to fall sequentially in Q3
Nebius core revenue $210 million (more than double y/y), but GAAP loss per share of $2.98; adjusted EBITDA loss of $53 million smaller than expected; raised Q3 and full-year core revenue guidance; shares fell about 8%
CEO Andrew Feldman flagged customer concentration risk, noting a frontier lab will be a "big chunk" of any chipmaker's business right now, "even Nvidia's"
CSCO: Cisco — Reversed to down ~3% after hours — Beat on EPS/revenue, raised AI revenue target, but gross margin guide missed
CRBP/CRBS: Cerebras — -12% to -15% after hours — Tripled revenue outlook but hardware sales guide disappointed
NBIS: Nebius — -8% — Beat on revenue but wider GAAP loss than expected
SMCI: Super Micro — Higher — Strong current-period guide drove shares up
4. Goldman Sachs Acquires NEOS Investments
Goldman Sachs to acquire ETF provider NEOS Investments for over $2 billion in cash and equity
NEOS manages $30 billion in assets, focused on options-based income ETFs; deal would make Goldman a top-eight active ETF provider
Comes months after Goldman's acquisition of Innovator Capital Management; expected to close Q1 2027
5. Los Angeles Lakers Sold for Reported $12.5 Billion
Josh Kushner and Bob Iger's consortium buying majority stake from Mark Walter, who purchased the team for $10 billion less than a year ago
Walter had reportedly been pursuing a Las Vegas NBA expansion team before pivoting to acquire the Lakers
Genie Buss's future governance role is unclear; Iger said the intent is to honor the existing agreement "if things change, they'll change"
Motivation for Walter's rapid sale unclear; speculation ties to an ongoing federal/SEC investigation into his insurance-holding assets and reported health concerns, though a source close to Walter denied any link to the insurance matter
6. Market Strategist Debate: Momentum Sustainability and Valuation Risk
Candor's Eric Johnson: sees hyperscalers and AI infrastructure names beginning to work together again after weeks of negative correlation, driven by improving ROI visibility on capex, rising GPU rental prices, and accelerating cloud growth at Amazon and Microsoft
Johnson flagged capital demand and equity supply as risks that could push rates higher, and cautioned the market likely won't sustain the ~23x multiple seen entering the year given the "lower-multiple" nature of the earnings driving the current cycle
Bearish voice: Journey One Advisors' David Snyder called the AI rally a potential "last hurrah" for the secular bull market, noting earnings growth (82% since 2023 estimates) has vastly outpaced nominal GDP growth (28%), a divergence he called unprecedented; flagged free cash flow conversion falling from ~90% to ~67% of earnings and negative free cash flow at hyperscalers and frontier labs (Anthropic, OpenAI) as a structural concern
Trends Identified
1. The AI Trade Bifurcates Between Winners and Disappointments
Even within the same "AI infrastructure" theme, the market drew sharp distinctions Wednesday: CoreWeave, Super Micro, and Nebius's top-line beats were rewarded, while Cisco's margin miss and Cerebras's hardware guide disappointment were punished despite both companies raising other guidance. Investors are increasingly parsing specific line items — gross margin trajectory, hardware vs. software mix — rather than reacting to AI exposure as a monolithic theme.
2. Rotation Back Into "Pain Trade" Names Signals a Short Squeeze, Not Just Fundamentals
Strategists described the day's rally in names like SpaceX and Bloom Energy — which lacked company-specific news — as reflecting short covering and re-engagement with stocks that were "under liquidation" in July, rather than a fresh re-rating of fundamentals. This suggests part of the move may be technical and could reverse if sentiment shifts again.
3. Earnings Growth Outpacing GDP Raises Sustainability Questions
David Snyder's historical framework — noting S&P earnings growth of 82% against nominal GDP growth of just 28% since 2023 — is a notable outlier versus the post-1950 pattern where earnings tracked GDP growth closely. Combined with declining free cash flow conversion (from ~90% to ~67% of earnings) tied to negative cash flow at hyperscalers and frontier AI labs, this points to a market increasingly reliant on capex-driven, not cash-flow-driven, earnings quality.
4. Financials Poised as the Next Earnings Leadership Rotation
Multiple guests flagged financials — Bank of America, JPMorgan (hitting fresh record highs), and asset managers like Blue Owl, KKR, Blackstone, and Ares — as benefiting from a "wealth effect," fiscal spending, and capital markets activity even as tech dominates headline growth. Strategist Eric Johnson expects this broadening to continue even if tech retains outright leadership. ---
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish
The tape reflected renewed enthusiasm for AI infrastructure and momentum names, but hosts and guests repeatedly flagged that the durability of the rally — and its underlying earnings quality — remains an open question.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Gross margin compression at hardware/AI infrastructure names: Cisco and other suppliers face rising component and memory costs squeezing margins even as revenue grows.
Customer concentration risk: Nebius CEO acknowledged frontier labs represent an outsized share of chipmaker revenue, a vulnerability across the sector including Nvidia.
Earnings-to-GDP divergence: Guest David Snyder highlighted historically unprecedented earnings growth relative to nominal GDP, questioning sustainability.
Deteriorating free cash flow conversion: Free cash flow has fallen from ~90% to ~67% of earnings, linked to negative cash flow at hyperscalers and frontier AI labs.
Capital intensity and rate pressure: Rising CapEx expectations could push demand for capital higher, with risk of an "overheat" that pushes rates up.
Valuation multiple compression risk: Strategist Eric Johnson does not expect a return to the ~23x multiple seen entering the year given the lower-multiple nature of current earnings growth.
Geopolitical/oil market volatility: New attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions remain a wildcard for oil prices and inflation.
Uncertainty around Lakers sale motivations: Ongoing federal/SEC investigation into seller Mark Walter's insurance assets raises questions about deal context, though not confirmed as a direct driver.
This episode was covered in today's [The Market Signal — 2026-08-13](https://marketsignal.beehiiv.com/p/the-market-signal-2026-08-13), a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.