CNBC Fast Money
2026-06-25 · Hosted by Melissa Lee · CNBC
Executive Summary
Micron surged ~14% after hours on a top- and bottom-line beat, with 16 strategic customer agreements (14 locking in ~$100 billion in minimum guaranteed revenue over ~5-year terms) and fiscal 2027 CapEx guided above $40 billion — but the desk fiercely debated whether this time is truly different for a historically cyclical, commoditized stock with 80%+ gross margins. Big banks all passed the Fed stress test, triggering dividend hikes (JPM +10% with $50B buyback, Goldman +11%, Morgan Stanley +15%). Crude tumbled below $70 as the Iran war wound down, gold dipped below $4,000 and Bitcoin below $60,000, while Fedwatch’s Ben Emons argued July hike odds (~35%) are mispriced and the Fed is on hold. Alibaba fell ~3% on Anthropic’s distillation accusations, Qualcomm jumped on raised data-center targets, and homebuilders rallied despite Trump canceling the housing-bill signing.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Micron’s After-Hours Surge & the Cyclicality Debate
Stock surged ~14% after handily beating top and bottom line; call still underway during the show
16 strategic customer agreements; 14 locking in ~$100 billion minimum guaranteed revenue over ~5-year terms (through 2030); ~half-plus of revenue to be under long-term deals
Fiscal 2027 CapEx guided above $40 billion, >half going to construction/clean-room capacity
DRAM and NAND expected to stay tight beyond 2027; ~85% gross margins / 81% operating margins called “extraordinary”
Bears warn contracts “can be broken,” Koreans will compete on price, and stock is “as good as it gets”; in March it fell from ~$450 to ~$320 in weeks before becoming a “four-bagger”
2. Bank Stress Tests & Dividend Hikes
MS: Morgan Stanley — — — Dividend +15% to $1.15; $20B buyback reauth
GS: Goldman Sachs — — — Dividend +11% to $5.00
JPM: JPMorgan — all-time high — Dividend +10% to $1.65; new $50B buyback
BAC: Bank of America — — — Will announce after July board meeting (normal cadence)
All 32 banks passed; absorbed >$708 billion in hypothetical losses; capital down ~1.6 ppts
Desk skeptical of chasing Goldman/Morgan Stanley after ~50% runs from March lows on compressed IPO fees
3. Oil, Gold & Crypto Reset
Crude tumbled below $70; Trump blasted Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell for slow pump-price declines, targeting $2.25/gallon
Gold dipped below $4,000 (first since November); down 12% since June started, 24% since the Iran war began
Bitcoin broke below $60K (third time this year); Strategy down ~9%, ~80% off 2024 highs; Carter Worth says play gold for a bounce
4. Fed Outlook: Hikes Mispriced
Fedwatch’s Ben Emons argues the Fed is on hold; July hike odds (~35%) are mispriced and should be lower as oil declines feed into inflation next month
A hawkish Warsh Fed flattening the curve is “the best thing to happen to the bond market”; dollar at highest since fall 1986 vs. yen (162); two rate cuts not his base case
Hot PCE (~4%) expected but can be looked past; midterms flagged as biggest back-half risk
5. China Tech, Qualcomm & EVs
Alibaba dropped ~3% on Anthropic’s accusation it illicitly accessed Claude via thousands of fraudulent accounts; seven-day losing streak, worst month in 3+ years, below $100
Qualcomm surged after hours: non-handset revenue target $40 billion by 2029, new $15 billion data-center AI revenue target by fiscal 2029, capacity/memory secured at TSMC
Slate Auto opened pre-orders for a ~$25,000 electric pickup (cheapest EV/truck in US); ~180,000 orders, but desk skeptical on quality and two-door format
Trends Identified
1. Secular vs. Cyclical: The Memory Reckoning
The desk split sharply on whether Micron’s structural customer agreements and HBM scarcity have permanently broken its boom-bust cycle. Bulls (Tony Wang) cite agentic AI demand inflection and constrained supply; bears (Carter Worth, Dan Nathan) note six 50%+ drawdowns in 2024-25 and warn that “everybody knows this is cyclical” — when supply catches up, 85% margins won’t last.
2. Hawkish-Fed-as-Tailwind Paradox
A counterintuitive theme emerged: a Warsh Fed talking tough strengthens the dollar, softens commodities and oil, and flattens the curve — effectively doing the rate cuts for the administration by pulling long yields down, even as the policy rate stays on hold.
3. Capital Concentration in the AI Trade
Capital is flowing decisively into AI infrastructure while crypto, gold, and China tech bleed. Crypto treasury strategies (Strategy) “haven’t proven to add value,” Web3/DeFi “never materialized,” and distillation by Chinese models (Alibaba’s Qwen) compresses the economics of US labs’ massive spend.
4. Diversification Beyond Mobile/Single Markets
Qualcomm shedding its “mobile Scarlet A” toward full-stack AI mirrors a broader push by legacy chip players into data center and inference — leveraging existing TSMC scale and long-term agreements to capture the heterogeneous inference market. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Divided / Skeptically Constructive
Strong AI/memory fundamentals are acknowledged, but the desk is wary of chasing parabolic semis and bank runs, while macro tailwinds (lower oil, lower yields) support cyclical rotation.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Memory down-cycle: 85% margins are a peak; supply catch-up could reverse the trade sharply.
Contract durability: Long-term agreements “can be broken” if demand pulls back.
Korean price competition: SK Hynix/Samsung competing on price could compress margins.
Hot PCE / inflation stickiness: ~4% PCE expected; services inflation (incl. DRAM) could re-entrench.
Yen/JPY instability: At ~162, “something’s got to give” — echoes summer 2024 volatility event.
China distillation: Chinese models leveraging US labs’ spend at ~10% of cost threatens economics.
Crypto treasury strategy unwind: Leveraged Bitcoin holdings cut in half raise solvency questions.
EV market brutality: Slate Auto faces depreciation, quality, and two-door format challenges.
Midterm political risk: A House/Senate flip flagged as the biggest back-half macro risk.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-06-25, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.