Goldman Sachs: The Markets
2026-06-29 · Hosted by — · Goldman Sachs
Executive Summary
Goldman’s Chris Hussey interviews John Flood, head of Americas equity sales trading, who stays firmly in “buy the dip” mode despite renewed volatility, arguing the bull trend is intact and the S&P 500 has a real chance to break above 8,000 in the near term. Flood highlights extraordinary market activity — a record 34 billion shares traded in one recent session, ~$140 billion in two mega-IPOs without the market blinking, and a broadening corporate buyback bid (50–60 programs daily vs. 10 two years ago). He flags the market’s chief fear: 40 basis points of hikes now priced in by year-end, but sides with Goldman economists expecting a hold (which the market will read as a cut). His favorite trade is leaning into crowded winners — semis, semi equipment, Korea and Taiwan.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Volatility & Record Trading Activity
A recent session saw 34 billion shares trade across U.S. exchanges — the most active in market history, breaking the Liberation Day 2025 record
Reflects all cohorts (retail, institutional, corporate) repositioning portfolios
Flood remains in “buy the dip” mode; sees the general trend as higher
2. The Supply Picture: IPOs, Buybacks & M&A
Two high-profile IPOs in two weeks totaling ~$140 billion notional — the first and second largest primary raises in U.S. history; market “didn’t blink”
Retail has been the most consistent buyer of 2026; IPOs are accelerating the retail bid
Buyback desk now runs 50–60 programs daily (vs. ~10 two years ago); broadening beyond Mag 7 to smaller caps
Expects a record buyback year despite some Mag 7 names pausing repurchases
3. Themes, Rates & Earnings
Watching semis, semi equipment, Korea and Taiwan; crowding breeds volatility but the uptrend continues
Hedge funds shorting Mag 7 as a source of supply → “attractive entry points” in the complex
40bp of hikes priced by year-end is the #1 concern; Flood and Goldman economists expect no hike — a hold acts like a cut (bullish)
Q1 median earnings grew 14% (best in decades); Q2 expectations ~9% YoY — clearing that hurdle supports the move higher
Trends Identified
1. Earnings as the Bull-Market Linchpin
Flood is unequivocal that earnings — not multiples — are driving record highs: Q1’s 14% median growth was one of the best quarters in decades, and clearing the ~9% Q2 bar would confirm the fundamental backdrop. This is the core of Goldman’s bull thesis and the simplest explanation for why stocks keep hitting all-time highs.
2. A Broadening Buyback Bid Absorbs Supply
The surge from ~10 to 50–60 daily buyback programs, spreading beyond the Mag 7 to smaller caps, is a structurally bullish signal that corporate demand can offset even record IPO issuance. Flood expects a record repurchase year by both notional and number of companies — directly countering the “supply overwhelms the market” fear.
3. Rates as the Primary Tail Risk
With 40bp of hikes priced by year-end, rates are the one factor Flood sees that could “break this market.” His resolution — siding with Goldman economists’ no-hike call — frames a hold as a de facto cut, turning the market’s biggest fear into a potential bullish catalyst.
4. Lean Into Crowded Winners
Rather than fade the rotation, Flood advocates staying with what works — semis, semi equipment, Korea, Taiwan — using hedge-fund Mag 7 shorting as a chance to find attractive entry points. Volatility is the price of crowding, not a reason to exit. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Bullish
Flood is decisively constructive, treating dips as buying opportunities and targeting S&P 8,000 on the strength of earnings and technicals.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Higher rates / inflation: 40bp of hikes priced by year-end is the #1 risk that could break the market higher.
Crowding in semis: Popular, crowded trades are “bound to see volatility.”
Q2 earnings disappointment: The bull thesis depends on clearing the ~9% growth hurdle.
Pension rebalance headwind: ~$30B of U.S. stocks for sale into June 29–30 month/quarter-end could cause near-term weakness.
Russell rebalance volatility: Bouts of volatility typically accompany the rebalance.
Mag 7 supply from hedge-fund shorting: Creates pressure even as it offers entry points.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-06-29, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.