CNBC Halftime Report
2026-05-11 · Hosted by Scott Wapner · CNBC
Executive Summary
Scott Wapner anchors a wide-ranging debate on the AI trade with Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal, Jason Snipe and Rob Sechan as the S&P approaches 7,400 and both major indices notch their sixth straight winning week — the longest streak since October 2024. RBC raised its year-end S&P target to 7,9179 (from 7,750) citing AI optimism. The desk debates whether Qualcomm’s +70% in a month and Cisco’s pre-earnings rally are momentum chases or justified by directional focus. Intel surges another 15% intraday on the Apple foundry deal — knocking on the door of $300/share and up roughly 125% in a month. Lime files for an IPO under ticker LIME, Citi shares advance after Jane Frazier’s first investor day in four years sets new profitability targets, and Nvidia again hits a fresh all-time high.
Key Stories & Changes
1. The AI Trade State of Play — Six Weeks of Gains
S&P and Nasdaq’s longest weekly win streak since October 2024.
Hartnett (B of A): S&P set for a rare four-year streak of double-digit gains.
RBC raised year-end target to 7,9179 (from 7,750) on AI optimism.
Funstrat’s Mark Newton: trends remain technically constructive.
27% earnings growth this quarter — but ex-Mag 7, growth is only low-teens.
2. Intel Surges on Apple Foundry Deal
WSJ reports Apple and Intel reached preliminary agreement for Intel to manufacture some Apple chips.
Intel shares +15% intraday, +125% in a month (best week since 1975).
Talks reportedly ongoing for a year.
Unclear which chips: M-series (Mac) or A-series (iPhone).
Government got in at $20.47 — massive paper gains.
INTC: Intel — +15% intraday / +125% mo — Best week since 1975
AAPL: Apple — New ATH — Knocking on door of $300
NVDA: Nvidia — New ATH — Expansion of board with Suzanne Nora Johnson
MU: Micron — +13% intraday — Stock up another 100% in a month
QCOM: Qualcomm — +70% mo — Investor-day-driven momentum into 22x earnings
CSCO: Cisco — Pre-earnings rally — Options imply high vol; earnings next Wed
NFLX: Netflix — Down — “Dead money” per Weiss; trimmed
C: Citi — +11.5% YTD — Best of big banks; Mayo’s #1 pick
DELL: Dell — +12% — Trump told viewers to “buy a Dell”
3. Lime IPO Filed
Lime (scooters/bikes) filed S-1 to list on Nasdaq under ticker LIME (Goldman, JPMorgan lead).
Revenue up 70% over last two years; cash flow positive for three straight years.
Still not profitable; ~$1B in current liabilities with majority due by year-end.
Going-concern warning unless they raise capital.
Valuation reportedly one-fifth of prior private round.
4. Citi Investor Day
Jane Frazier raised short- and medium-term profitability targets at first investor day in four years.
Mike Mayo’s #1 pick.
Stock up 11.5% YTD, best-performing big bank.
Frazier: “We rebuilt the bank from the ground up” — global expansion in wealth management and investment banking.
Frazier joining Trump on China trip; cited “second and third order effects” of higher energy prices.
BFA target $170, Morgan Stanley $154.
5. Geopolitics — Iran Negotiations, China Summit
14-point one-page peace memo from U.S. awaiting Iran response.
Frazier: protracted inflation challenge “through the rest of this year” before normalizing to ~2% range.
6. Notable Moves
Cisco options: 4x more calls than puts; $200K bet on May 15 $95 strike calls = 3% move higher.
Cisco IV at highest in over a year — “options equivalent of accelerating into the turn.”
Lightos sold by Lebenthal — book-to-bill was 0.8 despite better quarter.
FTAI repurchased after pullback.
Trends Identified
1. Price vs. Valuation — Not the Same Thing
The desk emphasizes Micron’s chart is “insanity” but its forward PE is under 8x. Nvidia’s 70%+ EPS growth at 23x is “screaming buy.” The market is finally rewarding earnings delivery rather than chasing multiple expansion. As Weiss says: it’s a market that’s “easy” right now — buy AI, hold, repeat.
2. Software Off the Mat
The IGV is on a four-week win streak (longest since September). Cyber is coming off its best day since April 2025. Names like Datadog (+68%/mo), AppFolio (+36%), Fortinet (+30%/mo), CrowdStrike (+20%) are back. The narrative that “AI kills software” appears overdone. Microsoft up 17% from March low (still 25% off ATH) but the bid is back.
3. Trim, Don’t Sell
The desk repeatedly states: “It’s like a dance until the music stops — keep dancing but trim.” Position sizing matters more than picking tops. Several traders trim Qualcomm and Cisco while keeping core exposure.
4. Private Market Has Already Captured Upside
Brad Gerstner’s framing: SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic have “already IPO’d in the private market.” Retail investors need to temper expectations for the upcoming mega-IPOs. Tokenization may eventually democratize private market access.
5. Quality > Cheapness
Look at Citi: long history of failed turnarounds, but Frazier has delivered. Look at Intel: government-backed, foundry getting validation, Apple deal validates the thesis. Look at Boeing/PLTR — when the catalyst arrives, the moves can be parabolic. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Bullish / Cautious on Pockets
Records continue but the desk is increasingly trimming the most parabolic names. Optimism widespread but explicit caution on chasing.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Stretched price action — Qualcomm +70%, Intel +125%, Micron parabolic moves.
Concentration risk — semis at ~14% of S&P, narrow breadth.
2/3 of S&P down 10%+ from 52-week highs — half the market below 50/200 DMAs.
AI capex sustainability — “AI capex vigilantes” question when ROI shows up.
Mega-IPO disappointment risk — private rounds already captured upside per Gerstner.
Lime-style going-concern — debt-laden private companies coming to market.
Iran ceasefire fragility — peace memo response pending.
Higher oil for longer — Frazier sees protracted inflation challenge.
Software pivots not guaranteed — Adobe, IBM, BAA still struggling.
Algorithmic-driven volatility — opportunities but also flash drawdowns.
Geopolitical headline risk — China summit, Taiwan, rare earths.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-05-11, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.