CNBC Halftime Report
2026-07-01 · Hosted by Scott Wapner · CNBC
Executive Summary
Stocks closed out their best quarter in six years — Dow +12%, S&P +14%, Nasdaq ~+20%, Russell 2000 +20%+ (best first half since 1991) — with momentum the standout factor, up more than 40% for its best quarter ever. The committee debated whether the second half stays momentum-led (semiconductors) or broadens into the “other 493,” financials, health care and small caps, with Jim Lavinthal citing projected 26–30% earnings growth outside tech and Josh Brown showing that equal-weight tech (RSPT +41% YTD) has crushed a negative equal-weight Mag 7. Health care and biotech woke up in June (IBB record high), regional banks and industrials broke out together, and Nike was previewed ahead of its after-hours print with Josh Brown having bought a small position. The show also featured a Premier Lacrosse League $100M raise and Robinhood as a standout beneficiary of coming “Trump accounts.”
Key Stories & Changes
1. Best Quarter in Six Years — Momentum Leads
Dow +12%, S&P +14%, Nasdaq ~+20%, Russell 2000 +20%+ (best first half since 1991); best quarter since Q4 2020
Momentum (MTUM) up 40%+ — its best quarter ever — but choppier over the past month as the Mag 7 pulled back
For June, each Mag 7 name was down individually, but on the year only Meta is down; unwinding of momentum debated
2. The Chart of the Year — Check Writers vs Check Receivers
Josh Brown: equal-weight tech (RSPT) +41% YTD vs XLK +31%, while equal-weighted Mag 7 is negative and detracting from the S&P
8 of the top 10 momentum names trade on the data-center CapEx build: Micron, Intel, AMD, Caterpillar, Broadcom, Lam Research, AMAT, GE Vernova
Thesis: investors sold the check-writers (hyperscalers) and bought the check-receivers (suppliers)
3. Broadening Debate — The Other 493
Jim Lavinthal: projected earnings growth for the other 493 is 26% in Q2 and 30% in Q3, catching up to and exceeding tech; Mag 7 margins (~25%) have less room than the 493’s ~10%
Joe Terranova: staying focused on semiconductor earnings growth (24% this quarter, with Nvidia/Micron ~40% of it); broadening into health care and financials
Bank of America advised taking profits in S&P secular growth, buying large value and cyclicals; $2.3T wiped from Mag 7 market cap in June
4. Health Care & Financials Break Out
Health care was the top sector this month, hitting a record high; IBB record high, XBI highest since Feb 2021
Joe added to AbbVie (+17%/month, App-to-Gen/immunology acquisition); owns Illumina, West Pharma, Merck, Incyte, Eli Lilly
Regional banks (KRE) and industrials (XLI) breaking out together — read as healthy lending, business formation and credit quality; Josh long CFG and JPM, Jim long JPM, Joe long Citi
5. Nike Preview
Shares down 48% from 52-week high, -35% YTD; consensus ~12¢ EPS on $10.85B revenue (both down YoY), would be the 8th straight quarter of profit declines
Josh Brown bought a small position: “the print is not the risk, the risk is the guide”; already guided China down 20%; stock at ~1x trailing sales, cheapest since ‘08–’09
Jim Lavinthal (value guy) passed; committee split on whether it’s washed out
6. Premier Lacrosse League Raise & Robinhood
PLL announced a $100M Series E led by Ares and Josh Harris — its largest ever — ahead of lacrosse’s 2028 Olympic return and a renewed 5-year ESPN deal
Robinhood standing out with strong price performance (diverging from Bitcoin), a beneficiary of coming “Trump accounts”; exchanges (ICE, Nasdaq, CME) underperforming on prediction-markets/24-7 concerns
Trends Identified
1. Momentum vs Broadening — Not Either/Or
The committee largely converged on owning both: momentum still has “energy and juice” from the semiconductor/CapEx theme, while broadening into the other 493, health care, financials and small caps has real life on the back of projected earnings catch-up. Joe framed momentum as his 2026 compass; Jim and Jason leaned toward broadening.
2. One Bull Market Powering Five Sectors
Josh Brown’s “chart of the year” argues the market is effectively one AI-CapEx bull market where suppliers (equal-weight tech) vastly outperform the spending hyperscalers. The key second-half question is whether the check-writers keep writing checks — and CapEx already underway is hard to stop without wasting sunk investment.
3. Financials as a Read on Economic Health
Regional banks and industrials breaking out simultaneously was cited as the best available signal of healthy lending, risk-taking and business formation. The rally rotated from capital-markets/exchange names to bread-and-butter consumer and business lending, underpinned by strong credit quality and a solid labor market.
4. Health Care’s June Awakening
Health care went from a “nothing burger” for two-thirds of the quarter to the top sector in June, hitting record highs, with biotech breaking out. The committee sees it as a long-term AI-efficiency beneficiary and a momentum candidate for the second half. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Bullish
The committee is broadly optimistic on both a continuation of momentum and a genuine broadening of the rally into the second half.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Momentum unwind: A month of choppy MTUM raises the risk the momentum leadership fades in H2.
Semiconductor moderation: Micron price increases expected to moderate over coming quarters, driving dispersion.
Mag 7 drag: $2.3T wiped in June; margins near 25% with limited room to expand.
Nike guidance: 8th straight profit decline and China risk could send the stock to a “three handle.”
Rotation timing: Fast, furious rotations make timing sector leadership a “foolish endeavor.”
Overbought cyclicals: Delta/United described as overbought after sharp target-driven runs.
Exchange underperformance: Prediction markets and 24-7 trading pressuring ICE, Nasdaq, CME.
Short-duration sectors: Energy, materials and real estate momentum lacks passive-flow support and fades quickly.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-07-01, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.