CNBC Halftime Report
2026-08-25 · Hosted by Scott Wapner · CNBC
Executive Summary
The Investment Committee framed this week as pivotal for the bull market, with Nvidia earnings Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday seen as dueling catalysts for market direction. Steve Weiss criticized the administration's rhetoric on bond market "intervention" (including a viral Trump comment about deploying "the military" against bond vigilantes) and called for less bluster and more action, while Joe Terranova argued the AI/semiconductor trade needs "a shot of adrenaline" after multiple failed attempts to rebuild momentum this quarter. Shannon Saccocia noted a potential divergence between Warsh, who favors letting markets self-correct, and Bessent, who has been actively intervening — a tension the committee said adds uncertainty into Friday's speech.
Key Stories & Changes
1. The Big Week Ahead: Nvidia and Jackson Hole
Committee unanimous that this is a pivotal week for the direction of the bull market, driven by Nvidia earnings Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday
Steve Weiss criticized administration rhetoric around bond market intervention, including a Trump comment referencing "the military" as an intervention tool, calling instead for "less bluster... and get things done"
Morgan Stanley expects Warsh to "say less," offering silence on near-term monetary policy and the Treasury buyback program expansion
Joe Terranova: AI/momentum trade needs "a shot of adrenaline" after multiple failed attempts to rebuild positive momentum in AI, memory, and semiconductor names this quarter
2. Nvidia Earnings Preview: What Investors Need to Hear
Nvidia down six straight sessions, longest losing streak since September 2022, despite consensus expecting another beat-and-raise
Buy-side looking for next-quarter revenue guidance well above $109 billion, seen as the first real read on Vera Rubin chip ramp speed
Reported price increases of 15-17% on Blackwell and Vera Rubin platforms tied to memory cost inflation; questions on whether Nvidia can hold its mid-70s gross margin percentage
Circular financing scrutiny continues: more than $500 billion in financing arrangements with Wall Street firms, including backstopping up to $105 billion of an OpenAI Ohio data center
Additional reports: Nvidia in talks for a Perplexity investment at a $30 billion+ valuation, and spending $6 billion to build a US alternative to Chinese open AI models
Roth Capital price target: $300, citing near-term concerns: China export policy, deceleration from the "law of large numbers," circular financing scrutiny, and AI capex sustainability
3. Committee Debate: Is AI Euphoria Peaking?
Steve Weiss: believes the market has seen "the peak in AI euphoria" for the near term regardless of what Nvidia reports, expecting valuation compression across inflated AI-adjacent names
Joe Terranova (counter-view): Micron trades at roughly 6x forward earnings, implying the market is pricing in a cycle downturn within 6-12 months that he doesn't see happening; extends the same "too cheap" argument to Nvidia at ~19x forward earnings against ~35% earnings growth (PEG ratio of 0.5)
Discussion of whether the AI/memory cycle represents a genuinely elongated or secular growth phase rather than a typical commodity cycle, following a Micron CEO comment that "memory is no longer a commodity"
Rapid rotation flagged as a warning sign: Micron fell from roughly $1,050 to the low $900s in four trading days without a fundamental change in company value
4. Marvell Technology Ahead of Earnings
Marvell (MRVL) up 170% year-to-date, reports earnings this week
Morgan Stanley price target raised to $224 (equal weight), tempering expectations after a large run
Jim Lebenthal: Marvell has effectively replaced Coherent's position in the AI infrastructure buildout, particularly in optical fiber, with strong hyperscaler relationships
Consensus view: expect hyper-volatility with 15-20% pullbacks embedded in the long-term thesis; sizing discipline required
5. Tim Cook's Final Week as Apple CEO
AAPL: Apple — CEO transition — Stock up 2,200% over Cook's 15-year tenure; outperforming the Nasdaq YTD
Jim Lebenthal credited Cook's operational excellence and quiet political management, despite criticism that he lacked Steve Jobs-style innovation
Committee debated whether Apple's deliberate, late approach to AI spending was a virtue (avoiding "elephant hunting" deals) rather than a weakness
Incoming leadership under John Ternus described as more product-driven; Siri rollout under Apple Intelligence seen as the key near-term test
Shannon Saccocia: Apple's safety appeal stems from balance sheet strength, brand loyalty, and high switching costs for its massive install base
6. Bitcoin and Gold Positioning
Bitcoin: +14% in one week — Biggest rally since 2023; Needham says the rebound "has legs" tied to expected pre-midterm legislation
Gold (GLD): Large options trade — $200M+ call spread sold suggesting a bearish/capped view with a $425 breakeven over four weeks
Steve Weiss re-entering Bitcoin positions, citing legislative momentum and White House engagement, though he notes "no intrinsic value" and reliance on continued positive catalysts
Prior Bitcoin peak was around $125,000, well above current levels
Newmont Mining flagged as a preferred way to play gold strength, said to be breaking out above January highs ahead of the metal itself
7. Notable Analyst Calls of the Day
GILD: Gilead Sciences — Technical breakout flagged — Wolf Research sees $157 in play; part of broader large-cap biotech momentum (Vertex, Amgen, Lilly)
PHM: PulteGroup — Upgraded to outperform — Joe Terranova disagreed, citing decelerating revenue growth (-12% recently) and tightening margins from higher input costs
ABNB: Airbnb — Target raised to $217, outperform — Up ~30% in the past month on World Cup-driven travel demand; one of few consumer discretionary names with positive momentum
DAL: Delta Air Lines — Targets cut (Cowen to $105, Raymond James to $98) — Steve Weiss still sees ~25% upside to $105, citing ~12x earnings and ~7% free cash flow yield
UAL: United Airlines — Target cut to $192 (Cowen) — Cited alongside Delta cuts, reflecting recent airline stock weakness tied to Iran-driven oil concerns
MRNA: Moderna — Stock move discussed — Weiss bought on melanoma cancer data, sold part after the stock nearly tripled in a day; next catalyst is EU oncology conference Oct 23-27
Trends Identified
1. Bond Market Tension Between Treasury Intervention and Fed Independence
The committee highlighted a growing disconnect between Treasury Secretary Bessent's active efforts to manage yields (potentially tapping the Treasury General Account for buybacks) and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's stated preference for letting markets self-correct — a tension that adds uncertainty to Friday's Jackson Hole speech and, by extension, to rate-sensitive equity valuations.
2. AI Trade Needs a New Catalyst as Momentum Stalls
Joe Terranova's repeated framing that the AI/semiconductor trade needs "a shot of adrenaline" reflects a broader concern that with earnings season over and previous momentum rebuilds failing, the market increasingly depends on either Nvidia's report or Fed commentary to reset direction — leaving cyclicals and broadening-market narratives as inadequate substitutes on their own.
3. Diverging Views on Whether AI/Memory Is a Secular or Cyclical Trade
The debate between Weiss (peak euphoria, due for compression) and Terranova (secular growth mispriced as cyclical, hence "too cheap") captures a market-wide valuation debate: whether current low multiples on AI-adjacent names like Micron and Nvidia reflect appropriate risk pricing or a market failing to recognize an elongated growth cycle.
4. Data Center Backlash as an Emerging Political Risk to AI
Steve Weiss flagged growing local and political backlash against data center buildouts as a real, structural risk to the AI trade — potentially beneficial longer-term by preventing overcapacity, but a near-term overhang on sentiment that could intensify as midterm elections approach. ---
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Cautiously Poised
The committee broadly views this week as a make-or-break moment for market direction, with genuine disagreement over whether AI-adjacent valuations already reflect sufficient caution or still face further compression.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Nvidia earnings/guidance risk: A six-day losing streak into the print raises the stakes for both the beat and the forward guide above $109B.
Circular financing exposure: Over $500 billion in Nvidia financing arrangements, including OpenAI data center backstops, raise questions about true organic demand.
Memory cost inflation and margin pressure: 15-17% reported price hikes could squeeze gross margins across Nvidia and its customers.
Fed/Treasury policy divergence: Uncertainty over whether incoming Fed Chair Warsh will align with or contradict Bessent's active bond market interventions.
Bond market yield spike risk: A 10-year yield above 5% was flagged by outside research as likely to "accelerate headwinds for stocks."
Data center political backlash: Growing state and local opposition to data center buildouts is a rising, potentially election-cycle-driven risk.
AI valuation compression risk: Steve Weiss explicitly warned that inflated AI-adjacent multiples (broadly, not just Nvidia) will likely come down regardless of individual earnings results.
Iran conflict spillover to oil/airlines: Cited as a driver of recent airline stock weakness and a broader macro uncertainty.
Homebuilder margin pressure: Decelerating revenue growth and rising input costs threaten profitability despite recent upgrades (Pulte).
This episode was covered in today's [The Market Signal — 2026-08-25](https://marketsignal.beehiiv.com/p/the-market-signal-2026-08-25), a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.