Goldman Sachs Exchanges
2026-06-29 · Hosted by Allison Nathan · Goldman Sachs
Executive Summary
Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist Ben Snyder unpacks the 2026 IPO boom, with roughly 50 U.S. IPOs year-to-date (double last year’s pace) and about $120 billion in issuance — already tied with the record 2021. He argues the surge reflects healthy sentiment and AI-driven capital demand rather than a euphoric bubble peak, noting deal count (~100/year pace) remains far below 2021’s 250+ or 1999’s ~400. Snyder maintains a constructive medium-term view: the S&P 500 is up ~10% YTD while forward earnings are up ~17%, meaning multiples have actually contracted and earnings are doing all the work.
Key Stories & Changes
1. The IPO Recovery in Context
~50 U.S. IPOs so far in 2026, roughly double the pace at this point last year
Largest deal count for this point in the calendar since 2021, a record year
In dollar terms, ~$120 billion issued — essentially tied with 2021 for a record
Deal count is diverse (healthcare, industrials), but dollar volume is AI-driven
Drivers: recovery from a four-year muted stretch after the sharpest Fed hiking cycle on record, plus immense capital demand to fund the AI boom
2. Bubble Check — Is This 2021 or 1999 Again?
Similarities: very high equity valuations (not quite 2021/2000 levels), elevated investor confidence, a new technology theme
Key contrast: 25-year average is ~100 deals/year; 2026 tracks near that vs. 250+ in 2021 and ~400 in 1999
Goldman’s IPO Barometer sits at 140 vs. a long-term average of 100 — top of range but below 2021
Conclusion: a “far cry” from prior euphoric peaks
3. Supply vs. Demand for Shares
Biggest investor fear (more than AI or macro) is that new supply overwhelms the market
Forecast ~$700 billion in total issuance (IPOs + follow-ons) this year = only ~1% of the equity market, below the long-term average and in line with 2015–2019
Buybacks to exceed $1 trillion this year — corporate demand alone outweighs corporate supply
Caveat: math gets harder in 2027 as small IPO floats grow and lockups expire
Trends Identified
1. AI as the Engine of Capital Markets
The IPO surge, while diverse in count, is concentrated in dollar terms around AI and technology. Snyder frames AI not just as an equity theme but as the structural driver of the “immense desire for capital” pulling companies to market — meaning the IPO pipeline is effectively a leveraged bet on continued AI momentum. If AI deteriorates, the broader macro signals feeding the IPO Barometer would deteriorate with it.
2. Earnings, Not Multiples, Driving the Bull Market
The defining feature of 2026’s market is that the S&P’s ~10% gain is fully explained by ~17% forward earnings growth, compressing valuations rather than expanding them. This is Snyder’s central reassurance: the rally is fundamentally supported, and as long as economic growth holds, earnings — and the market — should hold.
3. A Volatility Disconnect Beneath Calm Indices
Index-level volatility has been modest even as single-stock volatility runs extremely high with very low correlations, leaving the headline market looking calmer than the action underneath. Elevated investor leverage (margin debt, hedge-fund leverage, leveraged ETFs) sets up more volatility ahead despite the optimistic earnings outlook. —-
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Constructive
Snyder strikes a reassuring, fundamentally-grounded tone, repeatedly downplaying bubble fears while acknowledging real uncertainties around AI, geopolitics and 2027 supply dynamics.
Risk Factors Highlighted
AI momentum cooling: A deterioration in the AI narrative would likely drag down the macro signals (rates, confidence, valuations) that sustain IPO activity.
Supply overhang in 2027: Growing floats and expiring lockups could tip share supply above demand next year.
Elevated valuations: Equity valuations are “very high,” even if below 2021/2000 peaks.
Investor leverage: Margin debt, hedge-fund leverage and leveraged ETFs amplify downside volatility risk.
Geopolitical uncertainty: Cited as an ongoing source of potential market volatility.
Earnings dependence: The bull case rests entirely on earnings holding; any growth disappointment removes the market’s main support.
This episode was covered in today’s The Market Signal — 2026-06-29, a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.