CNBC Halftime Report
2026-09-29 · Hosted by Scott Wapner · CNBC
Executive Summary
The Investment Committee sparred over whether rising rates and oil prices threaten the rally, with Steve Weiss turning cautious — selling Cisco, trimming Meta, and building cash to about 25% — while Jim Lebenthal stayed bullish, citing strong labor markets and earnings growth as reasons to stay invested despite having "no idea" where the 10-year yield tops out. The 10-year sat near 5.26% and WTI crude near $95, with Weiss arguing there's "no reason" for yields to fall given political incentives to keep oil elevated.
Key Stories & Changes
1. Rates and Oil: The Bull-Bear Divide
10-year yield near 5.26%, WTI crude near $95; Bank of America sees yields needing to approach 7% to meaningfully pressure valuations
Steve Weiss: sold Cisco, trimmed Meta (still his largest position after Taiwan Semiconductor), raised cash to ~25%, citing a "clear path to 6%" on the 10-year and political incentives to keep oil elevated
Jim Lebenthal: remains bullish on strong labor markets and earnings growth, market multiple has already compressed from ~22x forward earnings (price relative to next year's expected profit) at the start of the year to 18.5x now
Joe Terranova: notes positioning was caught offsides after most investors expected lower oil and yields heading into Labor Day; sees a clear downtrend in real estate, utilities, discretionary, and financials
Two-year yield is pricing in roughly four rate hikes, which Lebenthal called "too many"; yield curve has flattened ~30 basis points between the two-year and 10-year
2. Nvidia's Record $150 Billion Buyback
Total authorization now $235 billion, the largest buyback in history, surpassing Apple's prior record
Joe Terranova: mega-cap buyback "ceiling" has risen from $50-75 billion to $100-150 billion, predicts a $250 billion buyback from a major company in coming quarters
Nvidia's forward multiple has compressed from nearly 26x at its May year-to-date high to 19x now (10-year average around 36x)
Steve Weiss: prefers buybacks to dividends for their greater impact on stock price, calls it "financial engineering" in a positive sense
3. MongoDB CEO Departs for Meta
MongoDB shares fell sharply after CEO CJ DeSai left to lead Meta's enterprise platform
Weiss expressed surprise Meta shares were only down modestly (~4%), calling the hire "a clear message they're going into enterprise" and a genuine strategic signal rather than just consumer-app momentum from Muse's record download numbers
4. Micron Earnings Preview (Wednesday After the Bell)
Jim Lebenthal holds an overweight position, has added on dips and is now in the green
Expects continued strength in long-term strategic client agreements and pricing power given supply constraints
Margins expected in the mid-80s; historic revenue growth anticipated
Semi-equipment names (Lam Research down 29% quarter-to-date, ASML down 39%, AMAT down 34%) seen as needing Micron's report to reaffirm capex growth
Panel agreed Micron is unlikely to signal any capex slowdown, as demand continues to outstrip supply
5. Berkshire Hathaway Builds Lennar Stake
Berkshire's stake in homebuilder Lennar has grown past 10%, triggering SEC disclosure requirements, with continued buying last week
Joe Terranova: this reflects a bet that interest rates will eventually decline and revive the housing market, calling current conditions "about as negative right now as you could ever imagine"
Panel broadly agreed Berkshire will likely be proven right long-term but flagged near-term margin and revenue challenges for homebuilders
NVDA: Nvidia — Higher — Record $150B buyback, largest in history
MDB: MongoDB — Sharply lower — CEO CJ DeSai departs for Meta enterprise platform
META: Meta — -4% — Muted decline despite MongoDB CEO hire signaling enterprise push
MU: Micron — N/A (preview) — Earnings Wednesday; panel expects strong margins, no capex slowdown signal
LEN: Lennar — N/A — Berkshire Hathaway stake grows past 10%
DIS: Disney — N/A — Former CEO Bob Chapek discusses decade-flat stock in new memoir
Trends Identified
1. Mega-Cap Buybacks Are Resetting Market Expectations
Joe Terranova's framing of buyback "ceilings" rising from $50-75 billion to $150 billion-plus mirrors past market narratives around trillion-dollar market caps becoming new floors rather than ceilings — suggesting capital return at scale is becoming a permanent feature of mega-cap tech investing rather than a one-off event.
2. Multiple Compression Coexisting with Fundamental Strength
Several mega-cap names (Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft) have seen forward multiples compress meaningfully from their 2026 highs even as earnings growth remains strong, which the panel framed as creating a "both offense and defense" investment case — resilient growth combined with more reasonable valuations.
3. Positioning Whiplash From an Unexpected Rate/Oil Path
Joe Terranova's repeated point that most investors were "caught offsides" expecting lower oil and yields heading into the midterms is reshaping sector leadership, with real estate, utilities, discretionary, and financials bearing the brunt of unwound positioning.
4. Enterprise AI as the Next Competitive Battleground
Meta's hire of MongoDB's CEO, following its consumer-facing Muse rollout, signals that AI leaders are now racing into enterprise software — a shift the panel sees as strategically significant even though the stock's initial reaction was muted. ---
Sentiment Analysis
Overall Market Sentiment: Divided
The committee was explicitly split, with Weiss turning defensive and Lebenthal, Terranova, and Farr remaining constructive, generating one of the episode's more pointed internal debates.
Risk Factors Highlighted
Rate escalation beyond current pricing: Two-year yield pricing in roughly four hikes, which several panelists view as excessive but unresolved.
Yield curve flattening: A ~30 basis point flattening between the two-year and 10-year raises historical recession-signal concerns, though panelists dispute its predictive reliability here.
Oil price political dynamics: Weiss argues political incentives favor keeping oil prices elevated, complicating any near-term relief.
Financials sector deterioration: Clear downtrend tied to the flattening yield curve pressuring bank profitability.
Micron earnings read-through risk: Any disappointment could spill into the broader semi-equipment complex, even if fundamentally unwarranted.
MongoDB leadership vacuum: Sudden CEO departure ahead of investor day creates near-term uncertainty.
Housing market "transactional recession": Persistently frozen housing transactions despite Berkshire's long-term bullish bet.
Boeing quality/certification concerns: Not the focus of this episode, but referenced amid the broader industrials weakness discussion.
This episode was covered in today's [The Market Signal — 2026-09-29](https://marketsignal.beehiiv.com/p/the-market-signal-2026-09-29), a cross-source synthesis of multiple podcast reports.